Thin times and random times' decomposition

The paper studies thin times which are random times whose graph is contained in a countable union of the graphs of stopping times with respect to a reference filtration $\mathbb F$. We show that a generic random time can be decomposed into thin and thick parts, where the second is a random time avoiding all $\mathbb F$-stopping times. Then, for a given random time $\tau$, we introduce ${\mathbb F}^\tau$, the smallest right-continuous filtration containing $\mathbb F$ and making $\tau$ a stopping time, and we show that, for a thin time $\tau$, each $\mathbb F$-martingale is an ${\mathbb F}^\tau$-semimartingale, i.e., the hypothesis $({\mathcal H}^\prime)$ for $(\mathbb F, {\mathbb F}^\tau)$ holds. We present applications to honest times, which can be seen as last passage times, showing classes of filtrations which can only support thin honest times, or can accommodate thick honest times as well

Minimal fqf^q-martingale measures for exponential L\'evy processes

Let $L$ be a multidimensional L\'evy process under $P$ in its own filtration. The $f^q$-minimal martingale measure $Q_q$ is defined as that equivalent local martingale measure for $\mathcal {E}(L)$ which minimizes the $f^q$-divergence $E[(dQ/dP)^q]$ for fixed $q\in(-\infty,0)\cup(1,\infty)$. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of $Q_q$ and an explicit formula for its density. For $q=2$, we relate the sufficient conditions to the structure condition and discuss when the former are also necessary. Moreover, we show that $Q_q$ converges for $q\searrow1$ in entropy to the minimal entropy martingale measure.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AAP439 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Dynamics of multivariate default system in random environment

We consider a multivariate default system where random environmental information is available. We study the dynamics of the system in a general setting and adopt the point of view of change of probability measures. We also make a link with the density approach in the credit risk modelling. In the particular case where no environmental information is concerned, we pay a special attention to the phenomenon of system weakened by failures as in the classical reliability system

Valuation of default sensitive claims under imperfect information.

We propose an evaluation method for financial assets subject to default risk, when investors face imperfect information about the state variable triggering the default. The model we propose generalizes the one by Duffie and Lando (2001) in the following way:(i)it incorporates informational noise in continuous time, (ii) it respects the (H) hypothesis, (iii) it precludes arbitrage from insiders. The model is sufficiently general to encompass a large class of structural models. In this setting we show that the default time is totally inaccessible in the market’s filtration and derive the martingale hazard process. Finally, we provide pricing formulas for default-sensitive claims and illustrate with particular examples the shapes of the credit spreads and the conditional default probabilities. An important feature of the conditional default probabilities is they are non Markovian. This might shed some light on observed phenomena such as the ”rating momentum”.hybrid models; default sensitive claims;